The decision by a court this week to ban French nationalist leader and presidential hopeful Marine Le Pen from standing in the next presidential election may well guarantee victory for her National Rally (RN) party. If the November election of President Donald Trump taught us anything it is that legal action against the now-commander-in-chief catalysed many of his supporters who interpreted the prosecution as a deliberate attempt to block his re-election chances.
Whether or not Le Pen was guilty of embezzling EU funds is for the French courts to decide. But even some on the Left are questioning the decision to ban her from standing for office, alongside a four-year sentence to be split between tagging and suspension. Speaking with UnHerd, former Greece finance minister Yanis Varoufakis warned Le Pen's conviction is the latest stage of Europe’s “descent into the abyss of totalitarianism”.
He cautioned the charges were “laughable and ludicrous”, and to make them “a jailable offence and also a reason to bar her from running in the presidential election” was “mindboggling”.
Indeed, back in November, President Emmanuel Macron's justice minister — Gérald Darmanin — said "Le Pen must be fought at the ballot box, not elsewhere". No doubt many politicians sense the conviction will help - not hinder - RN's chances in 2027.
This will be the case whether Le Pen — who can remain an MP — gets her conviction overturned on appeal before the 2027 election, or whether her youthful and telegenic lieutenant — Jordan Bardella — gets his shot at the top job.
Closer to home, voters may be watching to see if lawfare is used against Reform UK and its leader, Nigel Farage, who — like RN — are leading in opinion polls.
While ideologically different, Reform and RN share many characteristics, not least being the key anti-establishment vehicle for those railing against mass immigration, social disorder, and political correctness.
Again, the French courts alone can judge the merits of this case. But it would be unsurprising if RN sees its star rise - rather than diminish - even with a conviction.
Victory in 2027 in France — one of the EU's two leading powers — could be catastrophic for the EU and cosey French establishment. What happens now, in a febrile and socially inharmonious country like France, is anyone's guess.
