A deal to hand over the British Chagos Islands - which includes a critical military base leased to the Americans - is going ahead after US President Donald Trump apparently backed the deal. Chinese ally Mauritius will gain sovereignty of the territory but will allow the US and UK to continue operating a base at Diego Garcia for 99 years at a significant cost to the UK taxpayer.

Trump's backing of the deal comes as something of a surprise given his friend, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, warned the deal would be met with "outright hostility" by the Trump team. Farage's reasoning was not without evidence. Back in October, Marco Rubio, who is now US Secretary of State, cautioned the deal posed a "serious threat" to US national security. The reason? Mauritius is a major ally of Communist China and could well change the terms of the lease deal. 3

Moreover, it is perfectly possible Mauritius quietly allows Beijing to spy on the all-important bomber base, which would assume massive importance if war ever erupted over Taiwan.

Just this week, China's military - the People's Liberation Army (PLA) - began a second day of drills around Taiwan focused on honing the ability to blockade the island democracy and make precision strikes, while calling Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te a "parasite".

Despite critics attacking Farage's closeness to Trump, the Reform chief tweeted: "The Chagos Islands surrender means we will pay Mauritius £90m a year for 99 years. If inflation averages at 3%, it will cost us over £50bn. This is a terrible deal for British taxpayers."

While not an attack on Trump - who remains an ally of the Reform leader - Farage's words suggest he is not willing to back the deal even if it has the US President's sign-off. The deal meanwhile could also undermine ties with India since New Delhi is wary of growing Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean.

While Reform UK's policy platform has so far focused on domestic issues, the party also needs to flesh out a foreign policy platform. No doubt many of its supporters would love to see enhanced Commonwealth ties. Reform may well find the Chagos deal gives it a base from which to build a foreign and defence manifesto.

So long as the UK and US hold Diego Garcia, there might be no problem. But in a real-life wartime scenario, would China stand idly by, and would the Americans and Brits not ll unilaterally seize control of Diego Garcia? For my money, in a world war scenario, Diego Garcia becomes one of the world's major geopolitical flashpoints.

For Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, he will take the win and use it as evidence of his strong relationship with the new US administration. But in the context of global instability and the need for the UK to maintain a strong defence posture, how sensible this handover is will be open to debate in the years ahead.