In a sign of growing confidence for Reform UK, leader Nigel Farage flatly rejected a proposal from Tory counterpart - Kemi Badenoch - for Reform and Tory councillors to form local coalitions if it was “right for the people in their local area”. In a humiliating snub to the Conservatives, Farage said he had “no intention” of doing this either at a local or national level (Badenoch continues to rule out a deal nationally).

In a rebuff to the Tory leader, Farage said “the Tories broke Britain nationally for 14 years, and their councils continue to break local communities with the highest taxes ever and worst services”. This comes amid reports Reform could overtake Labour in the 2026 Wales elections, with Reform currently on 25%, and Labour and Plaid Cymru tied on 21%. Opinion polls remain very positive for Reform, with Reform 4 points clear of Labour in the latest Find Out Now poll, tied in the latest More In Common poll, and just one point behind Labour for YouGov.

In all cases, the Tories languish in third place. Little wonder Farage is in no hurry to make a deal, knowing full well any partnership could be the Conservatives' only hope of undermining Reform or, at least, guaranteeing they are not junior partners in any future national coalition.

The Tories meanwhile are set for big losses in May's local elections and aren't even in the running for the Runcorn by election which Reform is set to win. Indeed so bad is the situation that former Tory minister, Esther McVey, has cautioned the Tories should let Reform win the Runcorn seat.

Aside from undermining Tory claims of differentiation with Reform (why vote for Reform or Tory with any enthusiasm if you know you will get the other as a pairing?), Badenoch has also fallen into Labour's trap.

Labour is now running ads with the faces of Badenoch and Farage merged, implying little difference between the two. This campaign is unlikely to persuade Reform voters but one can't fault Labour for trying.

Little wonder though Labour party chair, Ellie Reeves, said, "if you vote Reform or Conservative, you’re opening the door to more of the Tory chaos that held our country back over the past 14 years".

Meanwhile deputy Lib Dem leader Daisy Cooper cautioned, “you couldn’t put a cigarette paper between Badenoch and Farage when it comes to their policies” and “the Conservatives and Reform have merged in all but name under her leadership”.

Utter garbage of course but Badenoch has hardly helped her party's case with this outreach. Farage - the veteran campaigner - no doubt realises how reckless it would be to work with the toxic Tories just when Reform is sucking voters away from the former.

Reform UK may in fact have an asset in Badenoch's leadership. Frankly I doubt the Tories will chuck her anytime soon given the terrible optics of doing so. Still, Reform must be careful not to peak too soon nor fall victim to infighting of the kind evidenced by the Rupert Lowe debacle. This perhaps remains Reform's greatest risk.

For now, the good times roll on for Reform. May's elections and Runcorn look set to be positive while the Lowe saga seems not to have dented the party's support in the polls. Nonetheless the pressure is on to deliver real results, while the knives are out for Badenoch, who really needs to up her game.