On March 30, President Donald Trump once again raised the stakes in the Middle East, threatening Iran with military strikes and secondary sanctions unless Tehran agrees to a new nuclear deal. True to form, Iran swiftly rejected any direct talks under pressure or threat, but signaled it remains open to indirect discussions.

A week later, the White House shifted gears, announcing plans for direct talks with Iranian officials focused on Tehran’s nuclear ambitions — with a familiar warning: if diplomacy fails, “Iran will be in great danger.” These swings between hardline rhetoric and tentative diplomacy raise a critical question: is there a coherent strategy behind Trump’s Iran policy?

Is Donald Trump truly prepared to launch military action against Iran? Since his unilateral withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal, his administration has tightened sanctions and reinforced its military presence in the region. Even within conservative circles, some warn that brinkmanship could spiral into full-blown conflict.

Yet, Trump remains committed to his transactional approach. His goal is clear: force Tehran to compromise on its nuclear program, particularly its most sensitive components. It's a strategy supported not only by traditional US allies, but even by Russia — which, despite its ties to Iran, remains firmly opposed to a nuclear-armed Islamic Republic.

A large-scale war appears unlikely. But limited, targeted strikes — on nuclear facilities or critical infrastructure — are very much on the table. These could be executed directly by the US or delegated to Israeli forces, with Washington offering logistical support. The intent: maintain military pressure to draw Iran back to the negotiating table.

Can Trump's “maximum pressure” campaign succeed in forcing Iran into direct dialogue with Washington? Since the Obama era, no formal talks have taken place between the two governments. And while Iran continues to reject face-to-face negotiations under Trump, it has shown a willingness to engage through intermediaries.

On April 7, Iranian officials confirmed the resumption of indirect nuclear talks, this time mediated by Oman — once again ruling out any direct contact with the US delegation.

This resistance to direct diplomacy stems from deep-rooted ideological and political mistrust. For Tehran, sitting down with the US would legitimize policies it sees as undermining its sovereignty and regional clout. Iran has long preferred multilateral forums, where it feels less politically exposed.

But the regional landscape is shifting. Tehran’s influence through proxy forces in the Levant has weakened, and the economic toll of sustained sanctions is growing heavier. Under these pressures, pragmatism may begin to trump ideology. The question now is whether Iran, increasingly cornered, will quietly recalibrate its diplomatic stance.

Looming behind the nuclear dispute is another strategic concern: China. In March 2021, Iran and China signed a 25-year strategic partnership covering military, economic, and technological cooperation. For the US, this pact marks a serious escalation. It tightens China’s grip on Iran and pulls Tehran deeper into Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, boosting both nations’ regional ambitions.

Washington fears this alignment could give China a powerful foothold in the Middle East, challenging American dominance. Beijing is actively working to bring Iran closer to Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE — a move that could reshape the region’s power dynamics and reduce US influence.

In the long run, the US sees the potential rise of an "Eurasian bloc," with Iran as a critical link — one that could counterbalance Western hegemony. This explains why Washington’s pressure campaign is about more than nuclear weapons: it’s about pulling Iran away from China’s orbit.

By reimposing maximum pressure, the US hopes to fracture the deepening Tehran–Beijing axis and steer Iran back into a trade and diplomatic framework more aligned with American interests. The ultimate objective: to preserve US influence over the regional economic order and curb China’s quiet but steady advance across the Middle East.