Keir Starmer’s first few months in Number 10 haven’t gone well. Tax rises and Treasury warnings about a “black hole” in the public finances swiftly shattered business confidence. Changes to winter fuel payments and disability benefits are plunging tens of thousands of people into poverty, according to the Government’s own figures.

And Sir Keir’s chief of staff, Sue Gray, was forced to resign following a vicious civil war inside Number 10, while four government ministers have also quit. So who’s likely to be the big loser when local elections take place on May 1? It seems very unfair but the person who could feel the heat once the votes are counted is actually Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch.

She, rather than Keir Starmer or Reform leader Nigel Farage, faces the biggest challenge on polling day. Mrs Badenoch suffers from the curse of high expectations. Traditionally, the party in power at Westminster does badly in “mid-term” elections, so you might expect Labour to lose seats. At the same time, both friends and foes of the Tory leader will be examining the election results for clues as to whether Mrs Badenoch is impressing voters and could one day replace Sir Keir as Prime Minister.

But a combination of factors means the Conservatives will struggle to make a breakthrough.

Around 1,600 council seats are up for re-election but many of these are in county councils, where Tories traditionally do well. Most big city Labour strongholds aren’t holding a vote this year.

It means Labour is only defending around 300 seats, while Conservatives are defending around 900. In other words, Labour doesn’t actually have many seats to lose.

And the last time most of these seats were contested, in 2021 when Boris Johnson was Prime Minister, the Tory share of the vote went up. Mrs Badenoch isn’t so much competing against Sir Keir as against the ghost of Boris.

Her dilemma is illustrated by looking at Kent, a county council which Conservatives currently control. The question here is whether they will succeed in holding on to what they have, or will lose seats to the Liberal Democrats and Reform.

In a similar way, Tories are battling to hold on to Gloucestershire County Council which they run as the largest party (though without a majority). They have been hit by defections to Reform while Lib Dems and Greens could make gains.

In both authorities there’s no opportunity to score a stunning victory against Labour, but a very real chance the Tories could suffer embarrassing losses.

Meanwhile, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage hopes to use these elections to demonstrate that he, rather than Mrs Badenoch, is the opposition politician best placed to take on Sir Keir at the next general election.

He made this clear at his local election campaign launch, where he described next month’s poll as the “first major hurdle” on Reform’s road to power.

Reform is boasting that it now has candidates in almost every seat, while in the 2024 local polls it only stood in around 12% of wards.

This is what you expect of a major party and Reform is now presenting itself as a credible national force rather than a repository for protest votes.

But starting from such a low base also makes it easier for Reform to make gains.

It’s not just council seats being contested. There are also six mayoral races and Reform could do well in the battle to run Greater Lincolnshire, where former Conservative MP Dame Andrea Jenkins has been selected as Nigel Farage’s candidate.

But the biggest danger for Mrs Badenoch may come in Runcorn and Helsby, which is holding a by-election prompted by the resignation of former Labour MP Mike Amesbury, after he was convicted of drunkenly assaulting a constituent.

It’s likely that attention on May 2 will focus on this by-election rather than the results of council polls.

Before the rise of Reform, Runcorn would have been a Labour-held seat where Conservatives came second - the type of constituency where Tories could pull off a stunning victory in a by-election.

But bookies currently have Reform odds-on to win at 4/11, with Labour second and Tories outsiders on 16/1.

Clearly, Reform would love to have another MP in Parliament. But their primary goal right now is to convince the world that they are the real opposition to Labour. Being driven into a poor third place by Reform would be a disastrous result for the Conservatives and a triumph for Mr Farage, even if Labour manages to cling on to the seat.

Of course, local elections are meant to be about who runs the local council, and this does matter.

Thirteen local councils have declared a financial crisis since 2018, with Birmingham the most high-profile example, and most council tax bills went up this month by an inflation-busting 4.99%, with some authorities imposing even bigger rises.

Cash-strapped authorities have increased charges for parking, waste collection and school dinners in a desperate bid for cash, as they attempt to cope with soaring demand for adult social care and children’s services.

Tories, to their credit perhaps, are focusing on local issues. Their election slogan is “lower taxes, better services”, and they argue that Conservative-run authorities charge less council tax but are better at mending potholes and collecting rubbish.

They are also highlighting the horrific scenes in Birmingham, where uncollected bin bags are piled high in the streets thanks to a dispute between the Labour-run council and Labour-supporting trade union Unite. “Vote Labour, get trash,” say Conservatives, and while Brummies aren’t actually going to the polls on May 1 the message is that Labour will also ruin other parts of the country if they get the chance.

But for better or worse, these elections will be seen as a verdict on the performance of the national parties and their leaders. The results will be scoured for clues as to whether voters are sick of Labour - and whether Conservatives or Reform UK have the best chance of replacing Keir Starmer's party in government.

The party with the most to gain is Reform and the one with the most to lose, through no real fault of their own, is the Tories. Sir Keir must be thanking his lucky stars.