The UK economy stunned forecasters with a surprise 0.5% jump in February. That’s the strongest monthly performance since Rachel Reeves took over as Chancellor.

It's the first time in months that anyone could accuse Reeves of not killing growth.

Which must have come as a novelty for her.

Although the Tories had made a hash of things, they left Labour a growing economy, which rose 1.2% in the first half of 2024.

The usually sober Office for National Statistics could barely contain its excitement, saying Britain was “going gangbusters”.

Reeves swiftly put a stop to that, by banging on about her £22billion fiscal black hole and warning of the brutal Budget to come.

By doing so, she killed growth stone dead. The UK economy shrank 0.1% in January, and Reeves was on the rack.

But February’s rebound complicates that narrative, even if the jump was more down to ballooning state spending than any market-driven dynamism.

Sadly, it's all downhill from here.

Crucially, February’s numbers came before Reeves’ massive Budget tax rises land in April, including a painful £25billion hike in employer's National Insurance (NI).

Now comes the real test, as Donald Trump is about to pull the rug out from under her.

The US president’s tariff war is the biggest policy shock since the US came off the gold standard in 1971.

Stock markets rallied on Wednesday when Trump announced a 90-day pause on the most brutal tariffs, but the relief didn't last.

He still retained a 10% levy on all imports, with additional 25% penalties on cars, steel, and aluminium, and a punishing 145% hit on Chinese goods.

America is turning inward and the world will pay the price. Including us.

Tariffs drive up prices, which means inflation is likely to rocket.

That will keep interest rates high, squeezing businesses and consumers alike.

British industry could also take a beating as Chinese firms, unable to ship into the US, divert a flood of cheap goods our way.

It’s a nightmare.

Reeves’s NI hikes were already expected to destroy hundreds of thousands of jobs, but Trump will do worse.

UK borrowing costs are rising sharply, with 30-year gilt yields hitting 5.5% yesterday – the highest since 1998. That alone could blow another hole in Reeves’ fiscal plans.

The Chancellor trimmed some spending in her Spring Statement to shore up finances, but with economic growth set to slow again and borrowing costs climbing, she faces brutal choices in the autumn.

Tax hikes and spending cuts are all but guaranteed.

Her only consolation is that she can point the finger at Trump, even if many of the mistakes are hers.

Unless Trump makes a full U-turn Britain is heading into yet another crisis. Only the bond market can save us now.

Reeves may have her excuses lined up, but that won’t soften the blow. Her autumn Budget is already shaping up to be a brutal balancing act: higher taxes, tighter spending and less room for manoeuvre than ever.

Unless global conditions shift drastically – and fast – it's ordinary Britons who will be left footing the bill. This October's Budget may be even worse than the last one.