Nigel Farage is set for major gains in next year’s Scottish Holyrood elections, according to the latest poll giving a huge boost to Reform UK. Survation has found that Reform and the SNP will push Labour into third place, just a year after it looked like their Scottish leader Anas Sarwar would finally return Labour to power north of the border.

The poll suggests the SNP will win 58 seats in the Scottish parliament, followed by Reform UK on 21. Labour would be behind on 18, with the Tories in fourth with 13 seats. The LibDems and Greens would win 10 and 8 seats respectively.

The projections were calculated by elections expert Professor Sir John Curtice, who highlighted Reform’s surge north of Hadrian’s Wall.

Sir John said: “After its success in last week's English local elections, Reform now pose a significant threat to the Conservatives' and Labour's prospects at Holyrood too. More than one in four of those who voted Conservative in last year's Westminster election and nearly one in five of those who backed Labour have now switched to Reform.

“As a result, Reform's poll rating in Scotland has risen to 20 per cent for the first time and the party is now a serious competitor for the position of principal opposition party at Holyrood.

"The fracturing of the unionist vote is good news for John Swinney. Even though the party's share of the vote is now well down on May 2021, it could still win the bulk of Holyrood's first past the post seats, and as a result, be left with only a little short of its current tally of MSPs at Holyrood.

"Crucially, the fragmentation of Scotland's politics could help ease the path towards another pro-independence majority at Holyrood at a time when, still, almost half of Scotland would like to leave the UK."

The poll suggests a major breakthrough for Nigel Farage, whose previous parties - UKIP and the Brexit Party - always struggled to garner as much support in Scotland as they did in Wales and England.

It also comes just one day after a poll for next year’s Welsh Assembly elections promised major gains for Mr Farage.

It found Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru is now in first place, on 30% of the vote. Reform UK is now in second place, on 25%. Meanwhile Labour is down to just 18% of the vote, but ahead of the Tories on 13%. Since the 2021 Welsh elections, this suggests Labour’s support has crashed by nearly 20 points, with the Tories down by 13 points.

Both elections will take place on this day next year, along with thousands of additional local council elections.