Was Chancellor Rachel Reeves's Spring Statement a stroke of genius - getting the bad stuff over long before the expected 2029 election - or a gift to Reform UK? Liable to enrage the Labour Left, was the statement a smart move in anticipation that voters will have short memories, or will it irreparably damage Reeves and Sir Keir Starmer as Labour looks set to lose its first by election to Reform?

With economic growth predictions cut, welfare cuts are in the offing, with the universal credit health elements cut to new claimants by around 50 per cent and then frozen.This might well be Labour's attempt at balancing the books but it won't feel that way in Labour marginals where Reform is breathing down the former's neck. For Nigel Farage, the statement can only strengthen his party's hand in the critical Runcorn by election where Sarah Pochin looks set to become Reform's fifth MP following Rupert Lowe's expulsion.

For Labour, the party may well be making a smart move, banking on the short memories of voters, gaining a reputation for responsible economic management, and getting the economy on track for 2029.

Yet the move is risky. Labour did not come to power on a promise to ape the Tories, a point not lost on voters flirting with Reform. Worse, the plan may well not work at all.

The Labour Left will not take kindly to Sir Keir and Reeves copying - as they see it - from the Conservative playbook, while no amount of book balancing will satisfy those firmly on the populist and patriotic Right.

A Spring Statement designed to demonstrate responsible economic stewardship may gift the Runcorn vote to Reform and weaken Labour's standing in key constituencies while upsetting the increasingly frustrated Labour backbenches.

One thing is clear however - the biggest loser right now remains a marginalised, impotent and increasingly irrelevant Conservative Party unable to credibly challenge Labour after 14 years of failure, and losing hearts and minds to Reform UK.